Method

Shell

Forecast Signal

Total Forecast

Observed Consumption

Excess

Autoregressive

Green

1203

14,436

8535

5901

Yellow

649

7788

5072

2716

Exponential Smoothing

Green

1265

15,180

8535

6645

Yellow

644

7728

5072

2656

Simulation

Green

1275

15,300

8535

6765

Yellow

475

5700

5072

628